Follow the Yellow Brick Road, follow the Yellow Brick Road...and follow the price of gold to a 25-year high at $530 per ounce!

The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC For the week of Dec 12, 2005 --- Vol. 3, Issue 50

With heightened concerns about inflation - due in part to rising oil prices - many investors are choosing to put their money in gold. Looking back over time, history has proven that gold stands up to inflation. Back in the 1970's when serious inflation took hold of the United States economy; gold prices shot higher and rewarded those who invested in gold.

Let's go back about 100 years ago when the US was on the "Gold Standard", meaning our paper currency was backed by actual gold reserves. It was believed that gold was scarce, which continually drove the price higher. This created great hardships for farmers of that era. Farmers would borrow money for seed, but by the time they were able to harvest, the rising price of gold made it much more costly to pay back the bankers. Farmers were struggling.

The hardship many farmers experienced sparked the formation of the Populist Party, who wanted the US to go off the Gold Standard and onto a "bimetallic" standard of gold and silver. Since silver was more plentiful, the idea was that prices would not rise as fast. This would allow farmers to repay Banks for their seed money without the huge additional cost for the increase in currency.

The most memorable work of literature to come from the debate over gold and silver in the United States is "The Wonderful Wizard of Oz," published in 1900 by L. Frank Baum. That's right, many think that the "Wizard of Oz" is a children's story. But the reality is that the story is about gold and the struggle to get off the Gold Standard and onto a bimetallic standard. In fact, OZ or the letters O and Z are the abbreviation for ounce, as in ounce of gold.   The characters and items in the tale have a very symbolic meaning associated with the Populist period. Baum summarized the monetary debate through a charming story about a naive girl from Kansas - Dorothy, who represented the average American citizen. Baum based Dorothy's character on the outspoken Populist Leslie Kelsey, known as the "Kansas Tornado."

 

On Dorothy's journey down the yellow brick road, which represented the gold standard, Dorothy meets the Scarecrow, the Tin Man, and the Cowardly Lion. The Scarecrow represented Midwestern farmers that did not possess the intelligence needed to look out for their own best interests; the Tin Man represented the American factory worker that had become heartless through industrial labor; and the Cowardly Lion represented William Jennings Bryan, the failed Populist Leader. Bryan lost three presidential elections as key supporter of the Populist movement for the bimetallic monetary standard.

When they reached the Emerald City, the Wizard represented the McKinley administration, which appeared "all knowing" as they pulled strings behind a curtain, but were truly powerless to help the people. The Wicked Witch of the East represented the eastern banks that farmers borrowed from.   Once the Wizard was exposed and the Wicked Witch defeated, the Scarecrow or farmers were enlightened, the Tin Man or factory workers more empathetic, and the Lion or Populist Leadership were empowered. Even the Tin Man's axe was made of both gold and silver...the harmonious blending of the two metals.

But Dorothy still needed to get home. She was able to do this by using her silver slippers, which she had acquired near the beginning of her long journey. Yes, the 1939 MGM movie used Ruby Red slippers for dramatic and colorful effect, but the original slippers in the book were silver. So the answer was in her hands all along...silver! Mr. Baum wanted to creatively make his point that using silver was the answer.

Although Frank Baum, William Jennings Bryan and the Populist Party tried, the US remained on the Gold Standard. However, a few years later, large gold deposits were discovered, which alleviated the pressure on prices.

Today, increasing gold prices can signal that investors are concerned about inflation. But don't look for a wizard or magic slippers to fix it. The Fed will raise rates Tuesday and again in January to help keep inflation under control.